Clean Power 2030 – 10 takeaways from NESO’s advice to government

On 5 November 2024, National Energy System Operator (NESO) published its ‘Advice on achieving clean power for Great Britain by 2030’, in response to the government’s formal commission for independent advice to inform its Clean Power 2030 (CP30) action plan.

As a recap ‘clean’ power includes renewables, nuclear, biomass and plants using carbon capture and storage (CCS). NESO expects a clean power system to use at least 95% of these sources, with unabated gas providing less than 5% of generation.

This article outlines 10 key takeaways from NESO’s advice, the overarching message being that CP30 is possible while maintaining security of supply and without increasing costs to consumers but ‘several elements must deliver at the limit of what is feasible’ to get there.

1. Two very different pathways to 2030
   
   NESO’s advice sets out two pathways to achieving a clean power system: ‘Further Flex and Renewables’ and ‘New dispatch’. ‘Further Flex and Renewables’ has the highest levels of consumer engagement with residential and industrial demand flexibility, more storage and fast deployment of renewables but no new dispatchable power.
   
   ‘New dispatch’ sees growth in renewables but at a lower level compared to the first pathway and deployment of new low carbon dispatchable power (CCS and hydrogen) alongside the highest levels of nuclear capacity. Notably gas would still be used in 47% of periods in this pathway in contrast to around 15% in the Further Flex and Renewables Pathway, leaving the system more exposed to volatile international gas prices.
   
   
2. Unprecedented levels of renewable deployment
   
   According to NESO, offshore wind needs to be the ‘bedrock’ of the system, providing over half of GB’s generation with onshore wind and solar providing another 29-30%. The buildout rates of offshore wind represent the greatest challenge with NESO’s pathways requiring around 4-10 GW from each of the next two CfD allocation rounds and then annual deployment to be at a scale ‘multiple times higher than ever achieved before’. For onshore wind and solar, NESO’s pathways see a doubling of onshore wind capacity from 14 GW in 2023 to 27 GW by 2030 and a trebling of solar from 15 GW to 47 GW by 2030. Onshore infrastructure, supply chains, planning resources and high-quality of engagement with communities will need to support deployment.
   
   
3. More than enough batteries in the pipeline
   
   NESO’s pathways see battery capacity increase from around 5 GW in 2023 to between 23 and 27 GW in 2030 and there are plenty of projects in the pipeline - batteries are one of the most oversubscribed technology types in the current connections queue. The potential to deploy long duration energy storage (LDES) projects by 2030 on the other hand is more limited, with the focus on pumped hydro and smaller-scale innovative LDES projects. For batteries, NESO also acknowledges challenges with skip rates and ensuring batteries are included on a level economic playing-field.
   
   
4. Nuclear to focus on existing technologies
   
   Most existing nuclear plants are due to retire before 2030 and are currently being considered for life extension. NESO have therefore assumed a reduction in GB’s nuclear capacity from 6.1 GW in 2023 to 3.5 to 4.1 GW in 2030, with scope for more new build beyond 2030. The assumption includes Sizewell B, one unit at Hinkley Point C and a lifetime extension of one AGR unit. If Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) can be built by 2030, NESO acknowledges this could potentially compensate for under-delivery elsewhere in the system.
   
   
5. Low carbon dispatchable power more crucial post 2030
   
   The advice focusses on gas CCS and hydrogen to power as key dispatchable sources and ‘first of a kind’ technologies that could provide up to 2.7 GW of capacity in the pathways to 2030. These assets could also replace the need for unabated gas generation after 2030. According to NESO, around 35 GW of unabated gas (around the size of the existing fleet) will need to remain on standby for security of supply until the early 2030s until larger levels of low carbon dispatchable power and other flexible sources are able to replace it.
   
   
6. Connections, connections, connections
   
   According to NESO’s advice, central to connections reform will be the ‘creation of a direct link between the technology and capacity needed, by location, in the government’s plan for clean power by 2030, and the connection offers that are made’. NESO has simultaneously published (5 November 2024) the latest set of connection reform consultation documents, focussed on NESO’s three methodologies. These methodologies will be key to determining what projects are considered both ‘ready’ and ‘needed' for CP30. NESO’s CP30 advice is high level and contains spatial maps on page 41 showing broad capacity and technology alignment needed for the pathways.
   
   At distribution level, DNOs supplied NESO with the volume of renewable generation in their connection queues leading to 2030. According to NESO, there are two to three times more projects awaiting a connection than are needed in NESO’s pathways although for certain regions there is an undersupply of queued projects.
   
   
7. Accelerating transmission network build
   
   NESO concludes that of the 88 wider transmission projects trailed in previous recommendations and plans, 80 will need to be delivered by 2030. Timely delivery of these projects could result in a threefold reduction in constraint costs. To date, nine projects have been built and 68 are in development, with expected delivery dates by 2030 or earlier. NESO has identified that the Norwich to Tilbury and Sea-Link (SCD1) projects will need their delivery dates accelerated.
   
   
8. Demand flexibility both residential and industrial
   
   Electricity demand could increase by around 11% by 2030 but according to NESO, energy efficiency and demand flexibility can moderate this with levels of demand flexibility potentially increasing 4-5 times by 2030 through smart charging of vehicles, time-shifting household demand and enabling more responsive industrial demand with a further 4 GW from storage heating. NESO will be publishing its ‘Routes to Market Review for Demand Side Flexibility’ report in the coming months which will expand on its commitments to ensuring flexibility is sufficiently rewarded.
   
   
9. Much enhanced system operability
   
   NESO will be able to operate the electricity system with zero carbon for specific hours in 2025. For 2030, achieving year-round operation will require acceleration of regulatory changes to ensure new assets and services are in place in time. This will include increasing network services procurement to address inertia, frequency, voltage control, thermal constraints, and system restoration. The advice also acknowledges the breadth of control centre challenges required, including wide scale investment in digitalisation and artificial intelligence.
   
   
10. Going from a net importer to a net exporter of electricity
    
    NESO assumes interconnector projects with regulatory approval will deliver by 2030, increasing capacity from 8 GW in 2023 to 12 GW in 2030 with GB switching from being a large net importer to a net exporter of electricity across the year.